Countering recent yearly double-digit rate increases, the latest surveys seem to indicate a slowing during 2005.

Private health insurance expenditures enjoyed an average 7.7% increase last year, a major slowdown from the prior year's average national increase of 9.9%, according to a new study released today by CMS actuaries. This year's estimated rate of increase in private insurance costs: 6.7%. Next year spending will average 4.6%, CMS says.

These numbers closely track a Health Market Survey prediction last Fall that net expenses will slow at a rate that allows premium growth to fall approximately two percent per year for three years, then bottom out at approximately 2-3%. CMS makes no projection beyond 2006, but total private health spending hits 3.1%.

Medicare Advantage plans are barely mentioned, with only a single paragraph in a 9-page article on health spending.

Other features of the new estimates: the new Medicare drug program will allow a cost-shift from private industry to Medicare. Combined with a major Medicaid cost-shift, Medicare spending accelerates at the same time private spending slows, creates a large and growing chasm.